Minutes of the RBA's September meeting are due Tuesday, and September jobs data follows Thursday. CBA sees a higher bar for another hike, while Westpac still expects one more by December.
The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% in September, the fourth hike of the cycle. Minutes of that meeting arrive Tuesday, and the labour force survey follows on Thursday. Both are due at 11:30 am Sydney time.
Minutes test the Governor's softer tone
CBA says the minutes should shed light on the arguments for holding and will check whether they match the more dovish tone Governor Michele Bullock struck at her press conference. It views the hurdle for another increase as now higher.
Westpac takes a firmer line. It forecasts one more hike to 4.85% by December.
For the Australian dollar, a record that leans toward holding could weigh on the currency, while one that keeps further tightening on the table would reinforce Westpac's call.
Jobs data may hold unemployment at 4.6%
Thursday's report follows a surprise jump of around 40,000 jobs in August that pushed unemployment up to 4.6%, the highest since late 2021. Westpac forecasts a 20,000 rise in September, in line with consensus, with unemployment steady at 4.6%.
CBA expects a smaller 10,000 gain and also sees unemployment at 4.6%. It warns the print could be noisier than usual, because a survey group with a very low jobless rate is rotating out.
Households already feel the hike
Westpac's consumer sentiment index fell 4.7% to 80.4 in October, near the weakest levels in the survey's history. The NAB business survey also lands Tuesday, after August's slide in conditions into negative territory for the first time in six years.
Source: Investinglive
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