Goldman Sachs estimates Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to 22 to 23 million barrels per day. Physical Dated Brent prices nonetheless remain very high. Goldman still expects Brent to ease to $85 by year-end.
Persian Gulf oil exports are back near normal, but buyers of physical crude are still paying war-time prices. Goldman Sachs estimates exports, including dark exports, recovered to 22 to 23 million barrels per day over the past two weeks, broadly in line with their 2025 average.
Dark exports are cargoes carried by tankers that switch off their satellite transponders. Goldman put these flows at around 5 million barrels per day in September, which explains much of why its count is higher than others. JPMorgan, using a more conservative approach, put recent exports at about 89% of 2025 levels.
Crude leads the rebound, products lag
Crude has driven the recovery. In late September, Goldman said Saudi shipments more than doubled during the month to nearly 12 million barrels per day, while satellite data showed no seaborne crude exports from Iran.
Refined products tell a weaker story. Exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel remain around half of normal, which Goldman attributes to elevated regional refinery outages and the greater risk faced by smaller product tankers carrying more flammable cargo.
Dated Brent stays far above futures
Physical prices diverge from the flow data. Dated Brent, the price for North Sea cargoes loading on specific dates, was recently near $120 a barrel, well above futures.
Goldman links the gap to fears that escalation could damage long-term production and to record-low global stocks outside OECD commercial inventories, which have prompted buyers to rebuild supplies quickly. The bank estimates the risk premium in Brent spreads averaged $22 a barrel in September, the second-highest monthly level on record and above the peak during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.
The bank maintains its base case that Brent eases to $85 by year-end and $80 in 2027, while warning that renewed escalation could push prices sharply higher. The weekend's Houthi claims of strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities put that risk directly against the barrels that have driven the recovery.
Source: Investinglive
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