Rising diesel prices and refining margins, not crude supply, are driving oil higher this week. Brent crude is on track for a 6% weekly gain toward $95 a barrel as US diesel prices hit a record high, OPEC+ is likely to hold quotas steady for October 2026, and Saudi Aramco holds its Asia pricing near a post-COVID low.
Refined products are behind the latest leg higher in oil prices, with diesel leading the move as the outlook for global middle-distillate supply keeps deteriorating into late 2026. ICE Brent crude is on track to end the week up 6%, trending around $95 per barrel, and no clear short-term factor points toward a pullback besides demand destruction.
US diesel breaks its 2022 record
Middle-distillate cracks are now higher than outright crude prices, and the US diesel market shows why. The US national average diesel price hit $5.85 per gallon, breaking the record set in 2022, as Hormuz product flows dry up and Russia keeps its export ban in place. Nationwide stocks sit at a record seasonal low, and East Coast stocks are at an all-time low, even though refiners are running at maximum capacity.
OPEC+ set to hold output steady as war caps Middle East supply
OPEC+ is likely to hold quotas steady for October 2026 at 31.01 million barrels a day, as the US-Iran war continues to cap Middle Eastern producers' ability to raise output. That pauses the unwinding of the remaining 1.65 million barrels a day of supply cuts until at least 2027.
Aramco holds Arab Light at a post-COVID low
Saudi Aramco is not moving to capture the tighter market either. The company kept its October selling price to Asia at a $2-per-barrel discount to Oman/Dubai, the lowest level since June 2020, defying expectations of an increase even as Dubai backwardation steepened again in August.
Source: Oilprice.com
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