Russia and Ukraine traded major drone attacks over the weekend, killing civilians on both sides and striking a Moscow oil refinery, while NATO's top military official said the alliance is fully prepared for any Russian escalation along its eastern flank. Russia said it downed more than 1,600 drones since Saturday; prediction markets price a 30% chance of a NATO-Russia clash by the end of 2026.
Russian authorities said two people were killed in the Moscow region during what Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin called one of the biggest Ukrainian drone attacks on the area. Russia said it had downed more than 1,600 drones since Saturday, including 450 headed toward Moscow. Several drones reached the Moscow oil refinery, and Reuters witnesses reported blasts and plumes of smoke from the facility; the extent of the damage was not immediately clear.
Refinery attack disrupts fuel supply
The refinery processed 11.6 million metric tons of crude in 2024, producing 2.9 million tons of gasoline and 3.2 million tons of diesel. Ukrainian strikes have already disrupted Russian crude oil refining capacity, contributing to fuel shortages and higher prices in parts of the country. The attack came on the final day of Russia's parliamentary elections, and Sobyanin claimed the drone operation was intended to disrupt voting.
In the wider Moscow region, authorities evacuated 400 people, including 70 children, from a 21-storey apartment building in Ramenskoye.
In Ukraine, an overnight Russian drone attack killed four people, including three children, in the Kyiv region. Emergency services said a mother and her two three-year-old children died after a drone struck a private home, and another girl died in hospital following a separate strike. Kyiv regional Governor Tymur Tkachanko said 31 sites across five districts were damaged, with the Fastiv district sustaining the heaviest damage. The latest strikes came after U.S. President Donald Trump said earlier in the week that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking each other's energy infrastructure.
NATO says it is ready for escalation
NATO's top military official said the alliance is fully prepared to respond to any Russian military escalation along its eastern flank, amid ongoing tensions with members Poland, Romania and the Baltic states. The alliance described the situation as a heightened peacetime security crisis, citing airspace violations and increased military readiness on both sides, though no open conflict has been declared. Prediction markets now imply a 30% probability of a NATO-Russia military clash by the end of 2026, against a 16% likelihood of a clash by October 2026.
Sources: Investing.com, Crypto Briefing
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
