Southeast Asia's six biggest power markets will bring online just 14.9 gigawatts of a planned 53 gigawatts in new gas-fired power capacity by 2030, according to Wood Mackenzie. A shortage of gas turbines, volatile LNG costs, and financing constraints are pushing governments toward more coal near-term and faster renewables growth long-term.
Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines together set a goal of adding 53 gigawatts of new gas-fired power by 2030. Wood Mackenzie now expects only 14.9 gigawatts to reach operation in time — roughly a third of the target. Fuel availability, volatile prices, and supply-chain bottlenecks threaten to drive up costs and delay projects by years, the energy consultancy said in a new report.
The delays are forcing policymakers to reconsider natural gas's role in the region's energy mix, said Wei Han Tan, Southeast Asia power and renewables research analyst at Wood Mackenzie. That suggests coal could play a bigger part near-term, with renewables gaining more ground in both the near and long term, than previously expected.
Turbine shortage tops the list of bottlenecks
Only 11 gigawatts of the region's gas-to-power pipeline has secured turbines so far, Wood Mackenzie said, amid a global shortage of the component. Capacity that hasn't locked in turbines is likely to face delivery lead times of at least five years, Wood Mackenzie said.
"The challenge today is not planning power projects but executing them," said Alvin Tan, a Wood Mackenzie analyst. New capacity depends on LNG infrastructure, financing, and turbine availability, and a bottleneck in any one can delay an entire project, he added.
Vietnam and Indonesia face the biggest gaps
Singapore appears on track to meet its 2030 goal, having secured turbine supply for all its major projects due before then. Vietnam faces the steepest shortfall: only 3.7 gigawatts of a 29.4-gigawatt target are likely to start operating by 2030. Indonesia, the region's largest economy, has locked in turbines for just 200 megawatts of a planned 8.4-gigawatt pipeline, leaning instead on solar and domestic coal.
Middle East crisis reshapes near-term supply
The war in the Middle East has tightened LNG markets and driven up gas prices, pushing some governments toward increased coal use as a stopgap. Coal cannot fully replace the lost gas supply, but it is providing a buffer through the biggest supply disruption energy markets have faced.
That's not a coal comeback but a reality check for the region's energy transition, said Tonmit Talukdar, a coal analyst at Rystad Energy. The crisis has made diversification a priority, with clean energy, electrification, and efficiency as levers to reduce import exposure and strengthen the region's energy systems, the International Energy Agency said.
Renewables set to triple by 2035
The IEA expects Southeast Asia's renewable capacity, at 120 gigawatts in 2024, to nearly triple by 2035 under current policies. That figure could jump fivefold if every announced target is met.
Still, the IEA expects coal and gas-fired plants to keep supplying the bulk of the region's electricity through 2050 under most scenarios, even as they shift toward more flexible operation.
Source: Oilprice.com
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