The S&P 500 closed at a fresh record high last week, but Monday's early gains stayed modest as traders weighed the record against a stalled U.S.-Iran nuclear standoff. Iran's foreign minister said talks cannot resume until Washington addresses breaches of a June agreement. Investors are also awaiting Wednesday's inflation report for a read on the Federal Reserve's next move.
Futures edge higher after a record week
U.S. stock futures pointed to modest gains Monday morning, a day after the three major indexes wrapped up their strongest week since April, a stretch that carried the S&P 500 to a fresh all-time closing high. S&P 500 futures rose 0.12% and the Nasdaq-100 equivalent gained 0.38%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures hovered just south of unchanged. WTI crude oil climbed more than 1%, with Brent trading near $84 a barrel, as traders also watched developments in the Middle East.
The gains follow a weaker-than-expected July jobs report that showed a surprise contraction in nonfarm payrolls, a result that sent stocks higher Friday. The report renewed bets the Federal Reserve may pause its rate hike campaign. Markets are now pricing about a 44% chance of a September rate increase, down from 67% odds a week earlier, according to CNBC.
Iran standoff clouds the rally
Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Sunday that talks could not resume while Washington remained in breach of the June memorandum of understanding, according to Tasnim News Agency. Tehran separately set conditions for restoring access through the Strait of Hormuz — a full U.S. troop withdrawal, the lifting of all sanctions and war reparations, per The Wall Street Journal, though it said it is closing in on a separate deal with Oman over the shipping lane.
Those signals contrast with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's remarks to CNBC last week that an agreement was close. President Trump told Axios that Washington was "only semi-negotiating" with Iran and intended to keep squeezing it economically.
Asia rallies, Europe holds flat
Asian markets extended Wall Street's Friday rally: Tokyo's Nikkei 225 climbed 2.1% to 66,970, Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 1% and Seoul's Kospi rose 0.65%. European stocks opened closer to flat, with London's FTSE 100 down 0.1% and Germany's DAX up 0.1%.
Investors now turn to Wednesday's consumer price index report for July. Analysts expect inflation to cool from June's pace.
Annual price growth is seen at 3.4%, down from June's 3.5% reading. Earnings from On Holding, Cava Group, Super Micro and CoreWeave are also due this week.
Source: Quartz
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
