Oil jumped again on Thursday after a tanker was struck near Qatar and a report said Washington was weighing renewed strikes on Iran, yet S&P 500 futures were down only 0.4%. Data covering 42 big oil-price days this year show the index has split roughly evenly between gains and losses, a day after the benchmark pulled back from its own record high as Treasury yields climbed.
Brent jumps 4% after tanker strike near Qatar
S&P 500 futures slipped 0.4% on Thursday as oil prices surged again. A tanker was struck north of Qatar, and a report said the Trump administration was considering resuming strikes against Iran ahead of November's midterm elections.
That sent the lead Brent crude contract up about 4%, to $104.14 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose a similar amount, to $91.84. The jump extended a run of sharp one-day moves in Brent crude this year.
Stocks show a surprisingly weak link to oil spikes
Using FactSet data, MarketWatch counted 42 days this year when Brent rose at least 3% in a single session. The S&P 500 fell in exactly half of those episodes, 21 times in all. Yet the average S&P 500 move on those days was barely positive, at 0.03%, with a median move of 0.01%. The correlation between the two came out at -0.37 on a -1 to +1 scale.
Index retreats from record high as yields climb
The S&P 500 closed at 7,801.77 on October 7, down 17.16 points, or 0.2%, a pullback that came right after the index moved above its prior all-time high, set in August. The Nasdaq Composite also slipped, closing at 27,538.69, down 61.20 points.
Brent crude itself eased back, topping $102 in morning trading before settling at $100.20, down 0.4% on the day. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.36%, up from 5.27% late Tuesday and near its highest level since 2002.
That yield rise comes as investors look to the upcoming earnings season, with analysts forecasting nearly 30% growth in S&P 500 earnings per share for the period. That projection points to a sharper profit rebound than Thursday's 0.2% index retreat would suggest on its own.
Sources: MarketWatch, AP News
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