BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky says the S&P 500's four-day surge into a 52-week high has occurred only three times in the past 30 years — and one of those instances was the day before the dot-com bubble's peak. Microsoft's own rebound draws a similar parallel, and Krinsky's caution echoes a separate warning from investor Michael Burry.
BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky says the stock market is flashing a signal he has seen only three times in three decades. One of those precedents preceded the dot-com bubble's peak, and Krinsky isn't ready to bet on the third.
A four-day surge with only three precedents
Over four trading days ending with Tuesday's close, the S&P 500 climbed more than 5% into a 52-week high. That combination has occurred only three other times in the past 30 years, Krinsky said: April 23, 1999, March 21, 2000 and Nov. 9, 2020.
Notably, March 21, 2000 fell the day before the dead high of the dot-com bubble, Krinsky said, though he called the parallel not statistically significant. After the April 1999 instance, the index traded in a wide sideways range over the next seven months that included a roughly 10% drawdown; November 2020 was the exception, breaking out into a multi-month uptrend instead.
Microsoft's rebound adds to the unease
Microsoft's own rebound is a further warning sign, in Krinsky's view. The stock has surged nearly 27% in four trading sessions ending Tuesday, a move he said was only exceeded once, in 2000.
The software giant reached a record on Dec. 30, 1999, then lost 60% over the following ten months before a 29% rally over four days, Krinsky noted. It also hit another all-time high on July 31, 2025, before falling 37% over the next 11 months ahead of this latest four-day surge.
In a research note, Krinsky wrote: "These are the two largest four-day rallies in MSFT history, never repeats, but often rhymes."
Not outright calling a top
Krinsky is not outright calling a market top. Instead, he believes the latest momentum rebound is likely to fail as investors hurt during July's unwind use the rally to sell.
He described the market as playing musical chairs, with money moving from momentum to value and back again, and warned some participants might not find a seat when the music stops. His concern broadly echoes Michael Burry's warning on Tuesday.
Burry said Tuesday it is possible the market is near a major top, and possible a 1987-type fall.
Source: CNBC
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