Spain's final September data confirmed headline inflation at 4.9% and core inflation at 3.1%. Core prices are rising alongside energy, which strengthens the case for the ECB to stay cautious.
Spain's headline consumer price inflation rose to 4.9% in September from 4.3% in August, matching the preliminary reading. The final figures leave the European Central Bank (ECB) with a stronger argument for staying cautious.
Harmonised rate reaches 5.0%
The EU-harmonised 12-month rate rose to 5.0% in September, up from 4.6% in August, according to final data from the National Statistics Institute (INE). That was Spain's fastest pace since February 2023, and the INE said the rise came mostly from higher fuel and air travel prices.
The reading matched the 5.0% flash estimate and the average forecast of analysts polled by Reuters.
Core prices add to the pressure
Investinglive described energy as the main culprit, largely stemming from the Middle East conflict. Core inflation, however, climbed to 3.1% from 2.9%, which excludes volatile fresh food and energy prices.
Investinglive noted that this is the highest core level since March 2024. The outlet argued that the concern is energy costs filtering through to other goods and services, which would make a return to the ECB's 2% target harder.
What it means for the ECB
Investinglive said one report won't be enough on its own to force another rate hike, though the ECB has already raised rates twice this summer. The outlet added that if core prices keep creeping higher across Europe, the debate could shift to how much longer the ECB can hold off.
Sources: Investinglive, Investing.com (Reuters)
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