Oil prices have climbed to six-week highs after renewed US-Iran strikes, and shipping data shows unusually low tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on some days. Analysts say the disruption is becoming an inflation risk that reaches well beyond the price of a barrel, even as Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan push for de-escalation.
Oil prices moved to their highest levels in around six weeks this week after renewed strikes between the United States and Iran, while shipping data continued to show unusually low traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on some days. The strait is not simply open or closed: some cargoes keep moving while others are delayed or rerouted, and that unevenness is exactly what makes the disruption hard to price.
A quarter of global oil trade at risk
Around 20 million barrels per day of oil and oil products passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, equivalent to roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade, and the strait also carried close to a fifth of global LNG trade. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates hold some pipeline capacity that bypasses the strait, but not enough to make the route irrelevant. Tankers may face higher war-risk insurance and longer waiting times, and refiners can find the crude arriving at their facilities is not the grade they normally process, so the delivered cost of energy can increase even when the headline oil price holds steady.
Regional mediators push to calm the strait
Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan are engaging in diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions between Iran and the United States, and Iran has acknowledged receiving de-escalation proposals through these mediators, according to Crypto Briefing. The talks focus on keeping communication channels open and addressing maritime security in the strait. Continued military tensions in the region could still affect how far that diplomacy goes.
Central banks face a harder call
Eurozone headline inflation rose to 3.3% in August, with energy a major driver. Economists surveyed by Reuters now expect the European Central Bank to raise rates again in September. A two-day spike in crude is mostly a market event, but months of higher freight costs and uncertain energy supply can turn into an economic one, feeding into the inflation picture central banks track.
Sources: Investing.com, Crypto Briefing (snippet-based)
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