Strive investments VP Adam Livingston has mapped a scenario where gold climbs 15% and the bitcoin/gold ratio reverts to its December 2024 peak, putting bitcoin at $190,858 and Strategy's 847,666 BTC treasury at $161.8 billion. The math checks out, but it rests on bitcoin erasing nearly two years of underperformance against gold in a single move.
Adam Livingston, Strive's VP of investments, has asked what happens if two specific conditions are met: gold rises 15% to $4,760 an ounce, and the bitcoin/gold ratio returns to the high it printed about 21 months ago. Under that scenario, bitcoin reaches $190,858 and Strategy's 847,666 BTC treasury climbs to $161.8 billion, a gain of roughly $90 billion from where the stack sits today.
The Ratio Has Halved Since December 2024
Using daily closes, bitcoin priced in gold peaked near 40 ounces on December 17, 2024, when bitcoin traded around $106,140 and gold sat near $2,662; Livingston's cited 40.1 figure probably reflects intraday or spot pricing rather than that daily close. Today, that ratio has fallen to about 20.4 ounces, with bitcoin near $84,600 — a drop of roughly 49%. In other words, an ounce of gold now buys twice as much bitcoin as it did 21 months ago, because gold ran higher while bitcoin pulled back from its highs.
Multiplying 40.1 ounces by a $4,760 gold price produces about $190,860 per bitcoin. At that price, Strategy's 847,666 BTC — bought for about $63.95 billion at an average of $75,437 a coin — would be worth roughly $161.8 billion. That dollar figure would also mark a new record: bitcoin's current high is about $126,000, set on October 6, 2025, and Livingston's target sits about 51% above it.
Gold's Own Path This Year
Gold futures closed at about $4,162 an ounce the day before the scenario was floated, putting a 15% climb within reach of the $4,760 target. The metal broke above $5,000 in January before giving back more than 20% from its peak. The steepest leg of that decline came fast: gold and silver shed $550 billion in a matter of hours on September 28. Since that sell-off, bitcoin has bounced from about $82,780 to roughly $84,600 while gold has stayed flat near $4,160, and the BTC/gold ratio has only just started to lift off its lows.
Market Pricing Sits Far Below the Target
Several widely tracked forecasts fall well short of $190,000. Citi has set a 12-month bitcoin price target of $113,000. Polymarket traders separately assign about 60% odds of bitcoin reaching $90,000 in October. Kalshi bettors put the odds of $100,000 in 2026 at 34%. The biggest assumption behind Livingston's math isn't gold at all — it's bitcoin closing nearly two years of underperformance against the metal in a single move.
Source: Bitcoin.com News
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