Tesla reports third-quarter results on Wednesday 21 October after deliveries beat expectations. Investors want evidence that automotive profitability is recovering while energy storage and AI spending are weighed alongside it.
Tesla reports its third-quarter results on Wednesday 21 October, and investors are looking past a better-than-expected delivery figure for signs that car profits can recover. Revenue is expected to come in slightly lower than a year ago.
Q3 revenue is expected at $27.86 billion and pre-tax profit at $1.72 billion, down around 32% from Q3 2025. Earnings per share is expected to be 43 cents, around 13% lower than a year previously.
Deliveries beat consensus, but margins matter
Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in Q3, up 1.3% from the previous quarter but down 2.1% year on year. The total topped the compiled analyst consensus of 461,974.
However, deliveries alone cannot show whether Tesla is earning more. Competition from Chinese manufacturers, including BYD, is intensifying, and discounts and lower-priced models can support volumes while potentially weighing on average selling prices and automotive margins.
Therefore investors will watch automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, along with average selling prices. In China, sales of China-made Tesla vehicles rose 5% year on year in September, according to the China Passenger Car Association, and those figures include exports.
Energy storage deployments come in below consensus
Tesla deployed 13.7 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of energy storage products in Q3, below the analyst consensus of 15.9GWh. The gap also makes management's explanation of demand, manufacturing capacity and project timing important.
AI spending and cash flow draw scrutiny
Chief executive Elon Musk has positioned autonomous driving, robotaxis and robotics as major future growth opportunities. The earnings call will be closely watched for updates on robotaxi expansion and Full Self-Driving software. Investors also want to understand how much Tesla is spending on AI infrastructure, and what that means for free cash flow.
Shares meet resistance near $390
The share price is down around 16% year-to-date and 24% from its December 2025 $498.83 record high, though it has risen around 27% from its late July low at $297.38.
On the weekly chart, Tesla shares keep running into resistance at the November 2025 and February 2026 lows of $382.78-to-$387.53. The 200-day simple moving average sits at $390.07.
Analysts' long-term mean price target is $377.01, around the current share price as of 13 October 2026.
Source: IG
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