Tesla stock has moved 8% or more the day after 10 of its last 15 quarterly reports. All seven big drops followed a quarter in which operating income fell from a year earlier. Third-quarter results arrive on Oct. 21.
Tesla will post its third-quarter numbers after the market close on Wednesday, Oct. 21, and the stock moved 8% or more after 10 of its last 15 reports, according to a Motley Fool analysis. The measure runs from the close on report day to the close a trading day later, since the start of 2023.
The average move, up or down, was about 9%. The moves have also tilted one way: Tesla stock dropped after nine of the 15 reports, including each of the past three.
Falling profits behind the big drops
The common thread is operating income. All seven big declines followed a quarter in which operating income fell year over year, including July 2024, when it fell 33%, and this July, when it fell 57%.
Gains tell a similar story. Two of the three big gains followed a jump in operating income, and the third-quarter 2024 report, with operating income up 54%, led to a 22% gain.
One report broke the pattern. In April 2024, Tesla posted first-quarter revenue down 9% and operating income down 56%, yet shares jumped 12% after the company said it would "accelerate the launch of new models".
A high bar for the Oct. 21 report
Part of the reason the moves get so large is probably the valuation. Tesla's stock trades at around 340 times its earnings under generally accepted accounting principles.
Tesla's operating income was around $1.6 billion in the third quarter of 2025 and $398 million in the second quarter of 2026, even as revenue climbed 26% year over year. To grow at all from a year ago, third-quarter operating income would have to be over four times the second quarter's total.
Source: Motley Fool
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