Tesla reports third-quarter delivery numbers on Oct. 2, with Wall Street's consensus at 454,000 vehicles. A Motley Fool analysis of production and inventory trends puts the figure that would send the stock higher above 485,000.
Tesla is due to release its third-quarter delivery numbers on Oct. 2, and the count will be closely watched. Tesla's electric vehicle deliveries equal its EV unit sales, so investors can plug the figure directly into their models.
Wall Street's split forecasts
The consensus points to 454,000 deliveries, according to Visible Alpha. However, Wall Street isn't unanimous: a Goldman Sachs analyst recently forecast 435,000 deliveries. A Barclays analyst, meanwhile, predicted 475,000.
Why inventory days matter
Tesla's global vehicle inventory, measured in days, shows how many EVs it holds relative to sales. A high number ties up cash in unsold vehicles, while a low number is generally seen as good. Tesla reduced this metric in the second quarter, arguably due to bumper sales that also brought margin pressure from sales incentives.
The number that would move the stock
Wall Street's consensus for Q3 production stands at 487,000 vehicles. Starting from that assumption, and holding global vehicle inventory at 15 days, the analysis works out Tesla's implied delivery number.
Tesla delivered 480,126 EVs in Q2 with 15 days of inventory, implying roughly 96,025 vehicles in inventory at the end of that quarter. Adding that figure to the 487,000-vehicle production forecast and solving for the same 15-day inventory ratio gives 485,833 deliveries in Q3, with about 97,171 vehicles left in inventory.
Maintaining production growth while holding inventory days steady would be a strong result for Tesla. According to Motley Fool analyst Lee Samaha, a delivery figure above 485,000 could send the stock higher.
Tesla shares traded at $372.11, down 1.5% on the day, with a market cap near $1.5 trillion.
Source: The Motley Fool
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