XRP trades near $1.00 after more than a 65% drop from its January high, and weekly ETF inflows have collapsed 93% even as whales keep buying. Three specific conditions, each with its own timeline, will decide whether the token recovers or keeps sliding.
XRP sits at approximately $1.03 as of August 10, down more than 65% from its January high of $3.40. Coinpedia puts the token at around $1.02 on the four-hour chart, with the $0.99-$1.00 zone acting as the immediate support level.
The token is caught between two conflicting signals. Retail and institutional flows point down, but on-chain data shows large holders accumulating. Whichever story wins depends on three conditions that are each observable and each on a clock.
The CLARITY Act vote looms over September
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act would classify XRP as a digital commodity under CFTC oversight, closing the gap left by the resolved Ripple v. SEC case. The bill faces a Senate cloture vote around September 15. Polymarket traders assign it just 16% odds of passing this year. A failed vote would remove XRP's biggest near-term catalyst, and 65% of institutional allocators cite regulatory clarity as a prerequisite before adding exposure.
ETF demand has nearly stopped
Seven spot XRP ETFs hold roughly $1 billion in combined assets. Yet weekly net inflows sank to $1.01 million for the week ending August 8, down from $14.86 million the prior week. Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick still holds an $8 year-end target for XRP, contingent on sustained ETF inflows above $1.15 billion cumulative and regulatory clarity — and the flow rate is currently moving the wrong way.
RLUSD grows while XRP demand shrinks
Ripple's stablecoin RLUSD has reached a $1.6 billion market cap, becoming the third-largest US regulated stablecoin, with partnerships spanning Mastercard, JPMorgan, and BlackRock. But RLUSD recorded net inflows in the same period that XRP investment products saw net outflows, so the stablecoin's growth is not yet feeding demand back into the token it was meant to support.
Whales keep buying as retail steps back
Large wallets are accumulating more than 10 million XRP per day. On Binance, 91% of XRP outflows now come from large-holder wallets — the highest concentration since 2024. That divergence between fading retail and ETF demand and accelerating whale accumulation doesn't resolve the outlook on its own. A break below the $1 support level could open the way toward $0.94. Bulls need to reclaim $1.036 to improve the short-term picture.
Sources: crypto.news, Coinpedia Fintech News
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