Donald Trump says Iran is losing its conflict with the US, but Tehran's regional allies are not standing down. The Houthis struck two more Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, and Hezbollah has pledged allegiance to Iran's new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, even as prediction markets turn more pessimistic on a reconstruction deal.
Trump said Monday that Iran is in an "economic and military death spiral" and that the United States is prevailing over Tehran. The remark lands in the middle of a conflict involving the US, Iran and Israel that has run since February 2026, marked by airstrikes and naval blockades around the Strait of Hormuz.
Markets turn cooler on a reconstruction deal
The conflict currently sits in what the report describes as a fragile pause, with diplomatic efforts reportedly stalled. Against that backdrop, prediction-market odds for a US-Iran deal that includes reconstruction funding have slipped to a range of 8.5% to 16.5%, reflecting less optimism that Washington and Tehran can reach a comprehensive agreement involving economic concessions.
Houthi strikes on Saudi tankers lift Brent
Yemen's Houthi group, which is aligned with Iran, claimed ballistic missile strikes on the Saudi tanker Wafa near Yanbu and another tanker, Daisy, in the Gulf of Aden on August 5, extending a naval blockade of Saudi shipping the group declared on July 20. Brent crude rose about 1% to around $80 a barrel in response.
The group had already claimed missile strikes on three other tankers earlier in July — the Encelia, the Layla and the NCC Ghazal — though none of those incidents produced confirmed major spills or casualties, and independent verification of the Houthis' claims has remained limited throughout.
Hezbollah falls in line behind Khamenei's successor
Hezbollah, a key Iranian ally in Lebanon, has publicly pledged allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's new leader, a move that reaffirms his authority within Iran's regional network. A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah remains active, but exchanges of fire continue, underlining how fragile that truce still is. Market pricing now suggests a lower probability that the Iranian regime falls by the end of 2026, consistent with the pledge reinforcing continued alignment within Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance rather than signaling an imminent military escalation.
Washington says it has the upper hand, while the Houthis keep striking tankers and Hezbollah keeps backing Tehran's new leadership, keeping geopolitical risk elevated across the region.
Sources: Crypto Briefing, Crypto Briefing, Crypto Briefing
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