President Donald Trump says the U.S. is "hopefully" nearing the end of its nearly seven-month war with Iran, even as fighting expands into Yemen. Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis are trading strikes over control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and oil prices are swinging after a drone attack damaged a key Saudi crude pipeline.
Trump told reporters in North Carolina on Wednesday evening that the U.S. may be close to ending the war with Iran, which began Feb. 28. He said he had spoken with Tehran directly, without giving further details. The Houthis have escalated attacks on Saudi Arabia and are pushing a ground offensive to seize the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
Gulf diplomacy at the UN
Trump plans to meet leaders from the six Gulf Cooperation Council states — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman — on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York next Tuesday, Axios reported. The guest list may widen to other Arab and Muslim leaders, and the State Department sent initial invitations Wednesday.
The talks will focus on U.S. proposals for a postwar strategy, though the plan isn't expected to be finalized until after the November midterm elections. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also wants to meet Trump in New York, but no meeting has been scheduled.
Pipeline damage rattles oil markets
Saudi Arabia shut its East-West Pipeline, which carries crude oil from the kingdom's eastern coast to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, after a drone attack damaged the line. Oil prices fell Thursday after Saudi Arabia reportedly arranged additional shipments through Oman's Sohar port via ship-to-ship transfers, easing fears of a prolonged supply gap.
Brent crude futures with November expiry fell 1.5% to $104.28 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with October expiry dipped 1.1% to $101.30.
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres repeated calls for de-escalation on Wednesday, urging diplomacy and the restoration of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. It remains unclear what Washington would require of Gulf states or Iran once the war ends.
Analysts see a long road ahead
Iran could be open to negotiating after the U.S. midterms, but continued reluctance to engage diplomatically risks dragging the conflict out, said Michael Feller, chief strategist at Geopolitical Strategy. According to Feller: "Iran may be willing to do a deal after the midterms." If not, he said, the war may continue until late 2028 or beyond.
Feller added that repairing the East-West Pipeline would offer one source of relief, though export-terminal stockpiles will run out unless the line is restored within days.
Source: CNBC
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