Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect U.S. consumer prices to fall 0.2% in June, a reversal from May’s 0.5% gain. The week ahead brings CPI, producer prices, retail sales and jobless claims across four sessions for dollar traders to work through.
The median forecast in a Wall Street Journal survey puts the June Consumer Price Index at -0.2% month over month, down from a 0.5% rise the month before. On a yearly basis, economists see headline CPI easing to 3.8% from 4.2%. The print lands Tuesday at 0830 ET and opens a full stretch of U.S. releases.
Core prices hold while headline cools
The cooling shows up in the headline number rather than the core. Forecasters expect core CPI, which strips out food and energy, to rise 0.2%, with the annual core rate steady at 2.9%. That gap between headline and core is the number to watch in this inflation report.
Producer prices follow on Wednesday. The survey sees the Producer Price Index flat at 0.0% in June after a 1.1% rise in May. The same session carries the New York Empire State manufacturing survey at 8.4, up from 5.7.
Consumer and factory data round out the week
Thursday brings the demand side. Economists forecast retail sales up 0.2% in June, a step down from May’s 0.9% gain, alongside jobless claims at 218,000 for the week ended July 11. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey is seen at 9.8, down from 10.3.
Friday closes the week with housing and output figures, including housing starts at 1.31 million and industrial production up 0.2%. The preliminary July consumer sentiment reading is expected at 50.5, up from June’s 49.5.
Source: MarketScreener (snippet-based)
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