ADNOC says two of its vessels came under attack in the Strait of Hormuz, yet oil prices fell on Thursday instead of rallying. WTI dropped 2.4% to $81.25 a barrel and Brent lost about 2% to $87.07, as traders focused on softer demand and disputed export data rather than the attacks themselves.
Two Adnoc vessels attacked in Hormuz
The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, or Adnoc, said two of its vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. Adnoc is the UAE's state-owned energy giant, spanning upstream production, refining and shipping, and its Murban crude serves as a key Gulf benchmark.
This attack adds to a string of incidents this week. Vessels were also targeted in the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea, and Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen claimed Thursday they targeted a refinery in Saudi Arabia's Jizan region with drones.
Prices fall as export estimates diverge
Despite the attacks, WTI futures fell 2.4% to close at $81.25 a barrel, while Brent settled at $87.07, still up about 4% for the week. Vessel traffic through Hormuz dropped to a one-week low of eight ships, against a pre-war average of around 130, a sign traders are pricing in supply outside the headline conflict.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said exports through Hormuz have neared a seven-day average of 9 million barrels per day, a figure well above independent estimates. TD Securities, for one, puts Hormuz exports closer to 5 million bpd, a level its director of commodity strategy said falls well short of what the market needs. Wright said private trackers undercount ships moving through the strait covertly.
Demand outlook also weighs on crude
The International Energy Agency now expects oil demand to fall by 1.6 million barrels per day this year, about 510,000 bpd more than it previously forecast. Traders also point to Chinese stockpile drawdowns and rising US output as reasons oil is decoupling from war risk.
Washington and Tehran also disputed control of the strait this week. Iran claims it has closed Hormuz and will only reopen it once Washington meets its demands, while President Trump said the US has total control. Former energy adviser Amos Hochstein dismissed the political statements around the standoff. According to CNBC: "It's all nonsense. It's just market management."
Chinese demand and rising crude output outside the Gulf are now doing more to move prices than the attacks themselves.
Sources: Investinglive, CNBC, Investinglive
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