UBS research finds artificial-intelligence investment is driving a much larger share of U.S. business spending than its direct size would suggest. The bank estimates each percentage point of growth from AI-related investment now generates roughly 1.46 percentage points of additional investment the following quarter.
AI spending dwarfs the rest of business investment
AI-related technology investment is growing about 30% year over year, UBS economist Arend Kapteyn said in a Sept. 25 research note, while other business fixed investment has risen just 0.8% and residential investment has contracted 3.8%. The gap shows that, despite some signs of improvement in higher-frequency data, investment growth remains heavily concentrated in AI-related spending.
UBS defines its AI investment proxy across five national accounts categories: electrical transmission and distribution equipment, special industry machinery, computers and peripherals, communications equipment and data centres. Together, those categories account for roughly 18% of non-residential fixed investment and about 2.5% of GDP.
A multiplier that keeps compounding
The bank's analysis found that every one percentage-point contribution to growth from AI-related investment generates about 1.46 percentage points of investment growth in the following quarter. Of that, 0.46 points comes from continued investment within AI-related categories, 0.30 points through software and research and development, and 0.69 points through other sectors.
The research found that the multiplier effect has strengthened over time. UBS's chart shows the estimated contribution from a one percentage-point increase in AI-related capital expenditure rising from 88 basis points in 1980 to 106 basis points in 2000 and 146 basis points by June 2026.
Spillovers reach beyond chipmakers
The effect is particularly visible in industries supplying data-centre infrastructure, including gas turbines, electricity infrastructure and utilities. UBS also pointed to less obvious beneficiaries, such as Japan's TOTO, whose ceramics expertise lets it manufacture electrostatic chucks used in semiconductor production. Those products now account for more than half of the company's profits, according to the research.
Source: Investing.com
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