A US commander has put a two-week campaign of strikes against Iran in front of President Donald Trump, the Wall Street Journal reported, while Trump vowed US retaliation for an attack on a military base in Jordan. A military confrontation with Iran would almost certainly disrupt global energy markets: Iran sits on the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply passes daily. Market pricing for a US invasion of Iran before 2027 has moved to 24.5% YES.
A US commander has suggested another two-week campaign of strikes against Iran to Trump, the Wall Street Journal reported. No credible reports of explosions inside Iran had surfaced when InvestingLive published its note, which was then updated with reports of strikes on the port of Sirik.
Trump ties retaliation to the Jordan base attack
Trump announced that the US would strike Iran in response to a recent attack on a military base in Jordan. The specifics of that attack, including its timing and casualties, have not been publicly detailed.
In the same statement, Trump warned China against continuing to supply weapons to Iran. Beijing's arms relationship with Tehran has been a persistent irritant in US-China relations, and the public ultimatum broadens the confrontation into a multi-front geopolitical standoff.
Energy markets sit in the path
A military confrontation with Iran would almost certainly disrupt global energy markets, Crypto Briefing wrote. Iran sits on the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply passes daily.
InvestingLive's writer questioned what a fresh round of strikes would accomplish aside from higher oil prices. Crypto Briefing, for its part, described the escalation as sending investors toward safe-haven assets, with crypto markets bracing for volatility spillover.
Prediction markets raise the odds of an invasion
Market pricing for a US invasion of Iran before 2027 has moved to 24.5% YES. Markets appear to read Trump's statement as supportive of a YES outcome for a potential US invasion of Iran before the end of 2026.
Observers are watching for further statements from Trump and the US Defense Department that could point to an imminent military operation, alongside the response from Iran and its allies and any diplomatic movement on ceasefire negotiations. Any movement of US troops toward the Iranian border, or a Pentagon announcement of military plans, would mark the next step up.
Sources: InvestingLive (snippet-based), Crypto Briefing, Crypto Briefing
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