US stock index futures barely moved on Wednesday as traders waited on Nvidia's earnings, a fresh inflation reading, and a second GDP estimate — all due the same day. Prediction markets put a 97% chance on an Nvidia profit beat, while software stocks including Intuit and Adobe already came under pressure.
Dow E-minis rose 31 points, or 0.06%, while S&P 500 E-minis slipped 7.5 points and Nasdaq 100 E-minis fell 76.25 points, or 0.26%, at 5:26 a.m. ET. Investors stayed cautious ahead of Nvidia's results and the Personal Consumption Expenditures report, expected to show price pressures climbing to 3.6% in July.
Prediction markets bet heavily on a beat
Traders on Polymarket put a 97% chance on Nvidia beating Wall Street's profit forecast when the chipmaker reports after Wednesday's close. That confidence contrasts with the stock's recent run: Nvidia had suffered its longest losing streak since 2022 before closing 2.19% higher on Tuesday.
Analysts expect revenue of around $92 billion for the quarter ended July 26, against management's guidance of $91 billion give or take 2%, with the data center division accounting for close to $86 billion. Investors will also watch whether Nvidia's next accelerator platform, Vera Rubin, is shipping on schedule.
Inflation and growth data add to the pressure
Before Nvidia reports, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is due to release a second estimate of economic growth, after its last estimate put Q2 GDP growth at 1.5%. Firmer growth paired with stubborn inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer, while weak growth with hot inflation would leave the Fed less room to help the economy.
Traders have priced in one 25-basis-point rate hike in 2026, according to LSEG data, though an in-line reading has lowered the odds of a September increase. According to Marc Ostwald, chief economist at ADM Investor Services: "a clear signal of market concerns about the AI investment related boom."
Software stocks slide, yields ease from highs
Shares of Intuit dropped 11.7% after the TurboTax maker forecast annual revenue below expectations. Adobe also fell, and ServiceNow and Atlassian each dropped more than 2%. Meanwhile, Treasury yields retreated after hitting multi-year highs last week, when oil prices, government debt, and inflation expectations had pushed them up. Investors are now looking to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday for clues on the rate path ahead.
Sources: Investing.com, Proactive, The Motley Fool
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