USD/CHF reversed after edging higher to 0.8394 last week, and the initial bias for this week is neutral. A decisive break of 0.8227 would point to a larger scale corrective fall, while a rebound would keep near term bullishness alive.
USD/CHF reversed after edging higher to 0.8394 last week but failed to break through 0.8227 support decisively. ActionForex says the initial bias remains neutral this week first.
Two paths from 0.8227
A strong rebound from the current level would retain near term bullishness for another rally through 0.8394 at a later stage. However, a firm break of 0.8227 would indicate that a larger scale corrective fall is underway.
In that case, ActionForex expects a deeper fall to 0.8092, the 38.2% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8394.
Bigger picture still favors the rise from 0.7603
In the bigger picture, the rise from 0.7603 should at least be reversing the medium term trend. Focus is on 0.8332 support turned resistance (2023 low) for confirmation.
A firm break there would target 0.8590, the 61.8% retracement of 0.9200 (2025 high) to 0.7603. For now, this remains the favored case as long as 0.7948 support holds.
Long term outlook stays bearish below 0.8578
In the long term picture, ActionForex sees price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It is uncertain whether the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern or a resumption of the downtrend.
Either way, the outlook stays bearish as long as the 55 M EMA, now at 0.8578, holds.
Source: ActionForex
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