Wells Fargo Investment Institute has cut its year-end 2026 gold forecast to $4,900-$5,100 per ounce, down from $5,300-$5,500 in June. It is the bank's third downward revision this year, and it points to a hawkish Federal Reserve as the reason gold's early-2026 rally has stalled.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute now expects gold to finish 2026 between $4,900 and $5,100 per ounce, down from the $5,300-$5,500 range it set in June. The bank started the year calling for $6,100 to $6,300, so the new midpoint marks roughly a 20% cut from its original target.
A forecast in freefall
WFII's gold call has moved several times this year. In February and March the institute set a range of $4,500 to $4,700, then raised it to $6,100-$6,300 as momentum surged. By mid-June the range had fallen to $5,300-$5,500, and now, in September, it sits at $4,900-$5,100.
The bank points to the Federal Reserve as the driver. A more hawkish-than-expected stance on interest rates has made holding a non-yielding asset like gold more costly. WFII is not alone in trimming its outlook: Goldman Sachs has adjusted its target to $4,900, while HSBC has gone further, cutting its estimate to approximately $4,560.
Where gold actually traded
Gold prices have been oscillating between $4,200 and $4,800 through the middle of 2026. January's spike above $5,500 was driven by geopolitical anxiety and rate-cut optimism that has since faded.
The bull case isn't dead, just quieter
Despite the repeated cuts, WFII has not abandoned its structural bullish case for gold. The bank continues to point to two longer-term supports: central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainty. Central banks globally have been accumulating gold reserves at an elevated pace, a trend that predates the current rate cycle, and sovereign buyers use gold as a hedge against dollar dominance and sanctions risk.
For investors holding gold as a portfolio hedge, the revised targets suggest the easy gains from the early-2026 rally are behind. A year-end target of $4,900-$5,100, against gold already trading in the $4,200-$4,800 range, implies modest upside rather than the dramatic move the original $6,100-plus forecast pointed to.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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