Market maker Wintermute says the current crypto bull cycle is still in its early stages, even as Bitcoin climbs and altcoins like NEAR and XRP pause. Bitcoin held $82,500 as support. Rising Treasury yields introduce a new macro risk tied to Bitcoin's growing correlation with the S&P 500.
Bitcoin traded up 2.4% for the week, holding at $86,100, as of October 2026. Buyers defended the $82,500 level, which has turned into support, with $90,000 to $95,000 as the next target after retail euphoria ran into profit-taking earlier this year.
Treasury yields add a new risk layer
Bitcoin's advance is now driven less by crypto-specific events and more by traditional markets. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields jumped to 5.35%, while 30-year yields reached 5.6%, their highest levels since 2008. As Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 grows, this creates a hidden macroeconomic risk for crypto if stocks fall.
Why the altcoin lull looks healthy
The altcoin index fell 1.1%, its first weekly decline since early August. Fundamentally strong projects have moved sideways for 14 days, but capital has started flowing into lower-quality, lagging tokens simply because they have not yet risen.
Wintermute says this local wave already looks exhausted, and buying low-quality coins now is a trap for latecomers. By contrast, the pause in NEAR and XRP represents healthy consolidation, and the trend's long-term structure still supports a bull cycle that is only beginning.
Watching the top 250 for rotation
Wintermute tracks maturity by watching shifts in the top 250 cryptocurrencies, where newer technology names are replacing former heavyweights. DePIN and AI themes built the foundation in 2024, followed by AI agents in early 2025, and October 2026 shows a steady rise in high-quality market capitalization. The market is now waiting for November 3, when U.S. midterm elections could reduce uncertainty around Treasury bonds and clear the way for new highs.
Source: U.Today
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