The World Bank says global commodity prices are set to surge 23% in 2026, driven by the Middle East war, Black Sea grain disruptions and demand for safe-haven assets. It expects prices to ease by 7% next year, but warns that further shocks could keep food prices elevated.
Global commodity prices are set to surge 23% in 2026, the World Bank said on Wednesday. The bank cited rising energy prices, cargo shipping disruptions during the Middle East war, grain shipment problems in the Black Sea and high demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.
Oil, natural gas, food and metals prices all rose sharply this year, according to the bank's latest Commodity Markets Outlook. According to the World Bank's deputy chief economist Ayhan Kose: "Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once".
Energy prices hit their highest level since 2022
Global energy prices surged 32% in 2026, reaching their highest level since 2022's invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Brent oil prices were expected to average $92 per barrel for the year and to remain elevated in the near term.
Oil stocks have been depleted during the war, and the bank expects global oil supply to drop 5.2% in 2026, the biggest drop in four decades outside the 2020 global recession. Oil demand is forecast to drop 2.5% this year, and prices would be even higher without that decline.
Metals and food follow
Metals prices are projected to rise 25% and hit a new high in 2026. Aluminum, copper and tin all set new records because of supply disruptions and strong demand from investments in renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centers. Precious metals prices are projected to surge by 40% in 2026, amid elevated demand for safe-haven assets.
Food commodity prices are set to rise just over 10% in 2026 because of grain shipment disruptions in the Black Sea, and another 7%-plus in 2027. Fertilizer prices are expected to rise 14% in 2026 due to a surge in urea prices.
Risks for 2027
The bank expects commodity prices to ease by 7% next year. Continued shocks, including forecasts for the worst El Niño weather effect since 1950, could keep food commodity prices elevated, raising the specter of higher inflation and tighter monetary policy.
Source: Investing.com
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