XRP is clinging to the $1 mark after falling about 40% this year, caught in a market-wide crypto selloff. The CLARITY Act could steady it by locking XRP's commodity status into U.S. law, but the bill is stuck in the Senate with an August deadline closing in.
XRP is barely holding above $1 after sliding about 40% this year, dragged down by a crypto selloff that has run for months. The one development big enough to reverse it, the CLARITY Act, is stuck in the Senate. With an August deadline approaching, little is left holding the token up if that $1 support gives way.
Why XRP is pinned at $1
XRP started the year near $2.40, then dropped to $1.27 when the Iran war broke out in late February. After a further 20% drop in June, it now trades near $1.08. The slide has come even as Ripple keeps winning business, signing new banking partners and pulling about $1.48 billion into spot ETFs.
Two forces are weighing on the whole market. The Federal Reserve is now expected to raise rates rather than cut them, with inflation back at a three-year high, which pulls money out of crypto and toward assets that pay a yield. The Iran war adds to it, since each escalation drives up oil prices and sends nervous investors toward safer ground.
Bitcoin makes it worse. It has dropped toward $60,000 and dragged the rest of the market with it, and altcoins like XRP tend to fall when Bitcoin does.
The bill stuck in the Senate
The CLARITY Act would lock XRP's status as a commodity into U.S. law. XRP is already treated as one through a court ruling, but a ruling can be undone by a future administration, so Ripple's custody deals only convert into steady demand once that status is permanent.
Passing the bill takes 60 votes in the Senate. Republicans hold 53, but two are expected to vote no, which pushes the number needed to seven to nine Democrats, of whom only two have crossed over. Three fights are keeping the rest away: a disclosure showing Trump earned roughly $1.4 billion from crypto in 2025, a section shielding DeFi developers from money-laundering rules, and a clash between Coinbase and the banks over stablecoin rewards.
Time is running short
The Senate is back this week, but leadership has put the defense bill ahead of the crypto bill, with a floor vote not expected until later in July. The chamber leaves for its August recess around August 7, giving the bill roughly 20 working days. If it misses that window, the coming midterm elections take over the agenda and could push crypto rules to 2027 or beyond.
Confidence has drained fast. On Polymarket, the odds of the bill passing this year have fallen to around 40%, down from the mid-70s a month ago. The supports beneath XRP are thinning too: its ETF funds just posted their first weekly outflow in nine weeks, about $7 million, and the large holders who bought through the drop have gone quiet.
That narrows XRP's outlook to two levers. Its $1 support holds only if the bill passes in time or Bitcoin steadies above $60,000, and with the clock running down, neither looks likely right now.
Source: 24/7 Wall St.
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