XRP fell to the $1.31-$1.33 area after hot US inflation data raised expectations of a Fed rate hike. Retail traders sold, while spot XRP ETFs recorded a net inflow of $1.7 billion. The Fed's decision and Ripple's Swell conference could decide what comes next.
XRP crashed to the $1.31–$1.33 area after tumbling from a local peak of $1.50. The token lost its summer momentum within a few days as Q4 2026 began.
Hot inflation data triggers the sell-off
The trigger was macroeconomic data from the US. Unexpectedly hot inflation figures led the market to price in a 64% probability of a Fed rate hike at the meeting at the end of the month, according to U.Today.
Liquidity flowed into defensive government bonds, and the retail sector began dumping positions en masse. However, the hourly chart shows the drop brought the price to a strong support zone. The $1.30–$1.60 range is where key liquidity pools and order blocks are concentrated, and sellers have run into a dense wall of liquidity.
Funds look to November
Large funds took the opposite side of the trade. This week's corporate triggers were the Nasdaq listing of Evernorth Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: XRPN) with a large XRP fund, Standard Chartered's custody for Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin, and the broker DriveWealth's integration of the token, and together they recorded a net inflow of $1.7 billion into spot XRP ETFs.
Price history frames the move. The current -12% cemented October's status as a traditionally weak period, with a median return of -5%. November and December have historically averaged returns of +80% and +63%, and funds appear to be counting on a repeat of the November 2024 scenario, when the token delivered a parabolic surge after similar pressure.
Fed decision and Swell conference decide the outlook
Two events will determine whether XRP can reverse the trend. They are the Fed's rate decision and Ripple's annual Swell conference in New York, which starts on October 27.
Source: U.Today
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