XRP is up more than 3% today to $1.14 and back at the falling trendline that has capped every rally since last July. The year-long wedge points to a $1.50 target, but the token needs a daily close above $1.18 to $1.20 to confirm the breakout — and the same line rejected it in January and May.
XRP climbed more than 3% today to $1.14, a fourth straight day of gains that leaves it up nearly 8% this week — its strongest run since the mid-June bounce. The move brings the token back to the falling trendline that has stopped every rally since its $3.65 peak last July.
A year of coiling inside a falling wedge
Since that peak, each XRP bounce has stopped at a lower high and each drop at a lower low, drawing two falling lines that keep squeezing toward each other. Chartists call the narrowing shape a falling wedge pattern, and XRP has bounced off both lines every time it touched them for a year.
The token has now reached the tip of that wedge and cleared the first hurdle. On July 3, XRP broke above a steeper trendline from late May and made its first higher high since that month. The year-long line is the bigger test, because it is the wedge’s actual ceiling.
Where the $1.50 target comes from
Analysts measure a wedge’s height and add it to the breakout point, which puts XRP’s first target at $1.50, roughly 32% above today’s price. A stronger move opens a second set of targets at $1.80 to $2.10, the extension zones.
The pattern has data behind it. Research by Thomas Bulkowski, which most analysts treat as the standard, found that falling wedges break upward about 68% of the time, with an average rise near 38% after a confirmed break. Yet the same research shows about a quarter of those upward breaks don’t hold, and the falling wedge ranks below average for reliability.
Volume is there, momentum isn’t
Daily turnover tells a supportive story. XRP volume has jumped from around $400 million in late June to over $1.7 billion, more than four times the earlier pace. Momentum lags, however: the daily RSI still reads between 32 and 37, near oversold levels, and the signal all sides agree on would be a daily reading above 50.
Bitcoin sets the tone as well. BTC has been moving sideways between $60,000 and $62,500, and a push above the $63,000 to $65,000 area would make XRP’s breakout far more likely. Overhead, roughly 50 million XRP were last bought between $1.18 and $1.22, holders now underwater who may sell at breakeven — the same wall that turned XRP back in January and May.
What confirms the move
XRP trades at $1.14, just under the zone where the trendline and that wall of sellers meet. A daily close above $1.18 to $1.20 with rising volume would open the path to $1.50, while a close below $1.02 would end the wedge and put the $0.85 to $0.90 support zone in play. The trendline close, the RSI above 50, and Bitcoin past $65,000 are the three boxes still waiting to be ticked.
Source: 24/7 Wall St.
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
