XRP traded at $1.02 on August 11, within striking distance of its first sustained test of $1 support since late 2024. Futures open interest has risen even as the price fell, exchange withdrawals hit a multi-year high, and spot ETF flows stayed too small to move the market — a mixed picture that leaves the $1 level exposed in both directions.
XRP traded at $1.02 on August 11, down from $1.07 a week earlier and $1.15 two weeks before that. The decline has been orderly rather than panicked, without the liquidation cascades that typically mark capitulation.
Open interest rises even as price falls
Futures open interest across all exchanges stands at $2.72 billion as of August 11, up roughly 8% over two weeks even as spot price fell by about the same percentage. Rising open interest on a falling price typically signals that new short positions are being opened rather than existing longs closing out.
Yet funding rates remain slightly positive, averaging 0.005% per eight-hour interval, meaning longs are still paying shorts rather than the reverse. A negative flip in the funding rate alongside a price hold above $1 would set up conditions for a short squeeze that could carry XRP back toward $1.15.
Exchange withdrawals hit a multi-year high
On-chain flows point the other way. Monthly net inflows to centralized exchanges have fallen to a record low of about 3.6 million XRP, while withdrawals hit their highest level since February 2021. Withdrawals are generally read as bullish since they move tokens into self-custody and off exchanges available for selling.
But the signal has a mixed track record: the largest single-day XRP withdrawal on record came on January 3, 2025 at $2.80, after which the price fell 63% over the next seven months. Withdrawals measure intent, not outcome.
ETF flows stay too small to matter
XRP spot ETFs recorded $1.01 million in net inflows for the week ending August 10, a figure that followed a single-day outflow of $3.58 million on August 5. XRP's daily spot trading volume exceeds $1.5 billion, against which ETF flows in the single-digit millions remain a rounding error.
SBI Holdings, the largest institutional holder of Ripple equity, reaffirmed its $41.2 billion exposure to the company in its latest disclosure, a commitment that has historically coincided with periods of price weakness for the token rather than strength. A daily close below $0.98 on above-average volume would confirm a breakdown; a brief wick below $1 that reverses within hours would not.
Source: crypto.news
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