XRP's 365-day MVRV ratio has fallen to about 0.92, leaving holders in that window roughly 8% underwater. Binance has shed leverage, but most XRP futures exposure sits on other exchanges, and exchange reserves remain high. CryptoSlate says a healthy recovery needs spot demand.
XRP's 365-day MVRV ratio has fallen to about 0.92, placing holders in the metric's window roughly 8% below their cost basis while XRP trades near $1.33, according to Santiment. A reading below 1 means the average holder in the window bought above the current price, which can reduce the incentive to take profits.
Yet the same reading can also describe a market where marginal buyers have thinned out. CryptoSlate notes that the metric describes valuation, while any rebound rests on buyers.
Binance sheds leverage, other venues hold most exposure
CryptoQuant's Oct. 17 analysis shows Binance XRP futures open interest falling 15.8%, from $538.1 million on Oct. 4 to $453 million, as the price slid from $1.52 to $1.29. Long liquidations on Binance reached $25.7 million on Oct. 7 and Oct. 8.
Glassnode's Oct. 19 data shows over $1.4 billion in XRP futures open interest, with Binance at $385.4 million, or about 27%. Roughly 73% of tracked exposure sits on other venues, whose Oct. 4 baselines are undisclosed, so the reset describes one exchange.
Funding has also turned positive. Glassnode's Oct. 19 readings run from +0.006% on Binance to +0.010% on Bybit, with an open-interest-weighted average of +0.009%.
Exchange reserves sit in the 99th percentile of the prior year
CryptoQuant counted 11.81 billion XRP in aggregate exchange reserves on Oct. 17, in the 99th percentile of the prior year. At $1.33, the reserves are worth about $15.7 billion. Reserves are balances at exchange addresses that can serve for custody, market making, hedging, or collateral, and they are separate from sell orders.
The levels that decide the next move
XRP nearly touched an intraday high of $1.35 as of Oct. 20. From $1.33, a fall to $1.25 is about 6%, and a rise to $1.55 is about 16.5%.
If XRP holds $1.25, clears $1.35 and then $1.40 on spot-led buying while open interest stays flat or lower, the reset has made room for a healthier recovery, and $1.55 comes into view. A rally with fast-climbing open interest and intensifying positive funding would instead rebuild the fragility that Binance just shed.
If XRP closes decisively below $1.25 with weak spot demand, roughly 73% of futures exposure outside Binance and elevated exchange supply could meet a broader altcoin unwind.
Source: CryptoSlate
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