XRP's weekly RSI has dropped below 30 for only the second time in its trading history, a rare oversold reading that last marked the exact bottom before an 1,100% climb. But the previous signal took nearly two and a half years to pay off, and this time the numbers needed are far larger.
XRP's weekly RSI has now dropped below 30, a rare oversold level reached for only the second time in the token's history. The last time it happened, XRP went on to gain more than 1,100%. That first signal marked the exact bottom of the previous bear market, so the second one raises the same question about whether a rally is coming.
How a yearlong slide dragged the signal below 30
XRP's fall this year has been a slow grind. The coin traded near $1.84 at the start of the year, already below its July 2025 peak of $3.66, and mostly held the $1.30-$1.45 range through the first two quarters. The $1.28 support that buyers had defended since February broke in early June, and by month's end the price had slid to $1.009, its lowest in nearly two years.
Months of relentless selling are what it takes to push the weekly Relative Strength Index below 30. In June, XRP's weekly RSI dropped to around 29.6, only the second such stretch in more than a decade of weekly chart data.
What the first signal actually delivered
XRP's first oversold reading came in June 2022, after the Terra stablecoin collapse dragged the crypto market down. XRP fell to $0.29 that month, with the weekly RSI bottoming at 28.09, and never traded below $0.30 again. Yet the payoff was slow. XRP finally took off in November 2024, when Donald Trump won the U.S. election and investors began betting on a crypto-friendly administration.
The price eventually topped out at $3.66 in July 2025, a 1,100% gain from the 2022 low. But it took nearly two and a half years to begin, with most of the move packed into a few months once the catalysts arrived.
Why a repeat is a much taller order
The math is far heavier this time. Another 1,100% from around $1.10 would put XRP near $13, a nearly $800 billion asset, bigger than Ethereum has ever been. The last time the signal flashed, XRP was worth about $14 billion; a comparable move from today's $67 billion would need institutional money on a scale the first rally never required.
Recent oversold signals have also failed, and a similar buy signal that flashed in April failed outright, with XRP trading more than 25% lower by late June. Money going into the spot XRP ETFs has slowed to almost nothing this month after topping $130 million in May.
Still, the mood matches 2022. Santiment's MVRV data shows XRP holders carrying their deepest average losses on record, with the 30-day reading near -45% and the 365-day at -47%. The signal may mark where the bottom sits, but it has never signaled when a rally begins.
Source: 24/7 Wall St.
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