Mark Zuckerberg approached Kalshi about buying the prediction-market exchange before directing Meta to build its own competing app, a new report says. The talks stalled without a formal offer, and Meta is now developing a play-money app codenamed Arena to sidestep the gambling questions dogging the sector.
Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg met Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour last year to discuss buying the exchange as its user numbers climbed, according to a report citing three people not authorized to speak publicly. The talks never advanced to a formal offer.
From buy to build
Accounts of the collapse diverge. Some sources said Mansour was unwilling to sell, while others said Meta judged the legal and regulatory questions around Kalshi too messy to take on. Rather than walk away, Zuckerberg directed staff to build a standalone app internally named Arena.
The design breaks from the market leaders: Arena will use play money rather than real-cash wagers as users guess on news events and trending topics, and Meta's AI systems will reportedly generate the questions and settle outcomes. By keeping cash out, Meta aims to avoid the classification fight that has drawn dozens of legal challenges in the United States alone. Minnesota became the first state to make it a felony for such platforms to operate, and the U.S. Justice Department has opened two insider-trading cases tied to Polymarket.
A sector still climbing
Kalshi raised $1 billion in a Series F round in May led by Coatue, at a $22 billion valuation — double its mark five months earlier. Rival Polymarket was valued at $10.7 billion, according to Pitchbook.
Sector volumes have swung sharply through 2026. Prediction-market platforms recorded roughly $8.6 billion in taker volume in April, with Kalshi overtaking Polymarket for the monthly lead, according to Dune Analytics data. The total 2025 industry volume topped $63 billion.
Meta struck a partnership with Kalshi in March, letting its markets integrate with the Threads app. Now the calculus appears to have moved from buy to build.
Source: NPR, Bitcoin News
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