Bitcoin, Solana Forecast: BTC Holds $60K Support as SOL Slides 20% This Month

Bitcoin is recovering slightly from a 21-month low, although sentiment remains cautious amid a broader sell-off in risk assets and growing expectations that U.S. interest rates will stay higher for longer. 

The largest cryptocurrency is down 2% over the past 24 hours but has recovered from a low of 58.2K to trade back above the key 60K level. Bitcoin is down more than 5% this week. Major altcoins are also under pressure, with Ethereum down 4.4% over the past 24 hours and 7% across the week. Solana is bucking the trend, rising 1.8% on the day and 3.5% over the week. 

Weakness across the crypto market reflects the broader risk-off mood. U.S. futures point to a weaker open amid renewed AI jitters and reports that OpenAI could delay its IPO, triggering another round of selling in technology stocks. Bitcoin has increasingly traded in lockstep with equities in recent weeks, making the outlook for risk assets an important driver. 

US inflation rises, supporting Fed rate hike expectations 

The macro backdrop also remains challenging. U.S. Core PCE rose 3.4% year-on-year in May, while headline PCE increased to 4.1%, supporting the view that the Federal Reserve could still raise interest rates this year. Higher interest rates support the USD and Treasury yields while reducing liquidity, creating a less favourable environment for Bitcoin and other risk assets. 

Attention now turns to next week’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which could provide further insight into the strength of the labour market and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. A stronger-than-expected report could reinforce higher-for-longer rate expectations, while weaker data may ease pressure on risk assets. 

Solana Falls 20% This Month, but Network Activity Is Rising 

While Solana is recovering modestly, it still trades near its 2026 lows and remains down about 20% this month. The sell-off reflects the difficult macro backdrop and continued selling by long-term holders. 

Exchange net position data, which measures the flow of tokens on and off exchanges, has risen sharply this month, suggesting that holders continue to move coins onto exchanges to sell. That persistent increase in supply keeps the price under pressure. 

However, on-chain activity tells a more encouraging story. Solana’s decentralised exchange (DEX) volume has climbed to around $1.73 billion on a seven-day average, up roughly 39% over the past month. Network fees have also remained firm at around $7.2 million over the past 24 hours and almost $200 million over the past 30 days. 

The divergence between falling prices and rising network activity suggests users remain active despite weak market sentiment. However, much of the increase in network activity appears to stem from memecoin flows and newer applications rather than broad-based adoption. 

For now, Solana remains caught between improving network fundamentals and persistent selling pressure. Until long-term holders stop selling, stronger on-chain activity alone may not be enough to drive a sustained recovery. 

SOL technical analysis 

SOL/USDT trades in a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart. The price has recovered from the trendline support and is testing the 50 SMA at 70. Momentum is also improving with the RSI above 50.  

If buyers break above the 50 SMA, it exposes the 200 SMA and the falling trendline resistance at 73. A break above here and 75 confirms a breakout from the symmetrical triangle pattern to the upside and could bring 83, the June high, into focus.  

Failure to retake the 50 SMA could see a retest of the rising trendline support at 66. A break below 64, this week’s low, would confirm a breakdown of the triangle pattern, bringing 60 into focus.   

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