Bitcoin keeps failing to close above $65,000 as a cluster of 1.79 million coins sits at break-even in that zone, ready to sell into any rally. Options traders are still buying $70,000 calls, but they are paying more for downside protection near $60,000 than for the upside bet.
Bitcoin traders are rebuilding bets on a run toward $70,000 while still paying for protection against a fall to $60,000. That split has held even after softer US inflation data, showing the market has not shed its defensive positioning.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% from a year earlier, while core inflation increased 0.2% for the month and 2.5% annually. Both yearly readings eased from June and matched expectations, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy further. Yet Bitcoin barely reacted, trading around $63,270 as of press time and extending a three-week stretch largely trapped between $63,000 and $65,000.
September hike odds barely move
The muted reaction in Bitcoin was mirrored in rate markets. The market-implied probability of a September rate increase slipped to about 42% after the release, down from roughly 46% beforehand, showing the in-line print did little to settle the policy outlook.
Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the report was still firm enough for policymakers to leave rates unchanged in September. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, told CryptoSlate the CPI reading "neither forces a hawkish re-pricing nor delivers a clear dovish catalyst," leaving monetary policy with little directional impulse for Bitcoin.
Options traders rebuild upside, but downside protection costs more
Deribit data showed about $1.1 billion of call open interest at the $70,000 strike, compared with roughly $1 billion of put open interest at $60,000. Laevitas said the dominant options activity on Deribit since Tuesday centered on the Sept. 25 $70,000 call, with traders buying 2,026 BTC worth of contracts for about $2.58 million as spot slipped toward $63,800-$64,000 and implied volatility firmed to between 34% and 35%.
Andrei Grachev, managing partner at DWF Labs, told CryptoSlate that downside strikes near $60,000 remained more expensive than comparable upside strikes around $70,000 after the CPI release. Bitfinex analysts said Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility fell to 33.8 on Aug. 8, near the bottom of its range over the past year, while downside skew remained negative through September.
A 1.79 million BTC wall sits at break-even
That renewed $70,000 interest faces a more immediate obstacle in the spot market. Bitfinex estimated that about 1.79 million BTC, or 8.93% of circulating supply, carries a realized cost basis between $62,000 and $65,000, with the largest concentration near $63,800. That puts a substantial pool of holders near break-even whenever Bitcoin pushes toward the upper end of its recent range.
This resistance has already appeared repeatedly: Bitcoin traded above $65,000 during six consecutive sessions between Aug. 5 and Aug. 10 but failed to record a daily close above the level, according to Bitfinex. This repeated failure suggests supply keeps returning as break-even holders get another chance to exit, leaving $65,000 as the hurdle before the rebuilt $70,000 calls can come into play.
Source: CryptoSlate
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