Twelve leading AI models used Bayesian scenario trees to weigh whether Satoshi Nakamoto’s 1.1 million bitcoins will ever move and whether the creator’s identity will be revealed. Nearly all of them reached the same conclusion: both outcomes are unlikely, though not impossible.
Bitcoin News asked 12 of today’s leading AI models to estimate whether Satoshi Nakamoto will ever move a cache of 1.1 million bitcoins, and whether the pseudonymous creator’s true identity will ever be definitively uncovered. Rather than a simple guess, each model was told to build a Bayesian scenario tree — a method that updates probabilities as evidence accumulates — and to distinguish evidence from speculation.
The models mostly agree the coins stay put
The panel spanned Grok 4.3 Expert, ChatGPT 5.5, Claude Sonnet 5, Claude Fable 5, Gemini 3.1 Pro, Deepseek Deepthink, Kimi K2.6 Instant, Qwen 3.7-Plus, Manus Lite, Pi AI, Mistral AI Vibe, and Microsoft Copilot. Each received an identical prompt asking for three weighted scenarios plus an “other” category summing to 100%.
The estimates for the coins moving clustered low but not identically. Grok 4.3 Expert put the odds at 8%, while Manus Lite landed at just 3%. Gemini 3.1 Pro weighted the chance under 5%, Deepseek Deepthink also settled on 5%, and Microsoft Copilot set it at about 12%.
Identity odds often run higher
Several models rated the chance of a definitive identity reveal above their own odds for any coin movement. Grok 4.3 Expert assigned a 14% probability of revelation against 8% for movement, Qwen 3.7-Plus put revelation at 15% against 5%, and Gemini 3.1 Pro placed it at roughly 10%.
Across most answers, the same scenario topped the tree: a deceased creator whose keys are lost. Several models leaned instead on a living individual committed to permanent anonymity, or a small coordinated team. The recurring evidence-based anchor was wallet dormancy — Qwen 3.7-Plus noted Satoshi’s last activity was in 2011, and Deepseek cited 16+ years of inactivity. Each model flagged the specific probability values as speculation rather than fact, leaving the mystery, by their own math, likely to endure.
Source: Bitcoin News
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