U.S. Central Command says its forces assisted more than 1,000 vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz over the past three months and that the waterway remains fully open. An analysis published in Investing.com's Commodities Analysis & Opinion section disputes that picture, putting even the raw, best-case estimate of assisted traffic at only 20% to 25% of normal levels — a figure that would fall further once a temporary rebound period is stripped out.
U.S. Central Command says the southern route through the Strait of Hormuz remains free and open for all commercial vessels, and that over the past three months U.S. forces have assisted more than 1,000 vessels transiting the strait despite what it calls unwarranted Iranian aggression. The analysis pushes back on that framing, arguing the strait is not fully open and that few ships are actually crossing it.
Traffic falls far below normal
Pre-crisis traffic through the strait ran roughly 80 to 140 commercial vessels a day. IMF PortWatch estimates often cite about 88 for larger cargo and tanker traffic specifically. Since the 2026 conflict began in late February, however, daily transits have collapsed to averages of roughly 10 to 15 vessels in recent periods, a decline of 70% to 90% or more from normal flow.
Assisted total still falls short
Over the 90 to 100 days from early May to early August, even at 10 to 15 transits a day, total vessel movement would come to roughly 900 to 1,500 ships. That puts CENTCOM's assisted-transit count at roughly 20% to 25% of normal traffic, by the analysis's own estimate, giving the command the benefit of the doubt. The accompanying claim of 500 million barrels moved works out to roughly 5 to 6 million barrels a day. That compares with roughly 20 million barrels a day that moved through the strait before the war.
A rebound tied to a temporary deal
The three-month window spans distinct phases: active conflict and very low traffic from early May to mid-June, a rebound in vessel movement under a temporary memorandum of understanding from mid-June to early/mid-July, and renewed hostilities with restricted traffic again from mid-July to early August. Because volumes outside that MOU window stayed so suppressed, a large share of the assisted transits almost certainly occurred during those few weeks of relative reopening — diluting the claim of sustained facilitation under continuous Iranian pressure.
Independent open-source vessel-tracking data does not fully verify or refute CENTCOM's total, partly because many vessels transit with tracking systems switched off for security reasons. The gap leaves the geopolitical risk around Hormuz crude oil shipments larger than CENTCOM's own numbers suggest.
Source: Commodities Analysis & Opinion
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