Bitcoin trades near $65,000 heading into the weekend, caught between a weak US jobs report that cooled bets on a September rate hike and rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz that threaten to revive them. Options markets are pricing a quiet two days, but heavy put buying leaves open whether Bitcoin breaks toward $70,000 or slides toward $60,000.
Bitcoin is heading into the weekend pinned between two opposing macro forces. Bitcoin traded near $65,000, with $67,300 marking the breakout trigger toward $70,000 and $60,000 marking the floor traders are watching if tensions around the Strait of Hormuz escalate.
Jobs report cools rate-hike bets
The US economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, far short of the roughly 80,000 gain economists expected, while May and June payrolls were revised down by a combined 103,000.
As a result, traders scaled back bets on a September Fed rate hike. The odds fell from 57% to about 44%, and the dollar weakened on the release.
Whales and ETFs buy, but a ceiling holds
Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have added more than 20,000 BTC since July 29, according to data from Santiment. US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs kept absorbing supply, and inflows reached $763.7 million this week, the strongest pace since April.
Yet that demand is running into a ceiling just above the current price. Glassnode put the range's ceiling at $69,000, the short-term holders' average acquisition cost. Deribit's volatility index sits near 35, down from roughly 90 earlier this year.
Options traders brace for a breakout or a breakdown
The bull case has Bitcoin holding above $65,500 into Monday, then clearing the $67,000 to $68,000 band on continued ETF and whale demand. Deribit's $70,000 and $72,000 strikes carry close to $5 billion in combined open interest, with calls far outnumbering puts, though that alone does not confirm which way dealers are hedging. The bear case has Hormuz headlines escalating over the weekend, reviving the inflation trade the jobs report just cooled, and testing the $62,000 to $63,000 put zone before Bitcoin loses $60,000.
Puts made up 53.8% of Bitcoin options volume over the past 24 hours, with $62,000 and $63,000 contracts among the most actively traded.
Hormuz tensions add a wildcard
Brent crude rebounded to the low $80s this week, settling up 3.83% at $82.49, after Iran reviewed a bill that would ban US, Israeli and other vessels it deems hostile from the Strait of Hormuz and fine violators as much as 20% of cargo value. The US Energy Information Administration puts Hormuz flows at roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG trade. The International Energy Agency estimates only 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels a day of alternative-route capacity exists, against the roughly 20 million barrels a day that normally pass through.
The Senate will not vote on the CLARITY Act before recess, removing a regulatory catalyst traders had counted on. Bitcoin's price jumped to $65,400 on Friday after the jobs report, but it lost momentum and has stayed sideways near $65,000 since.
Oil, Treasuries and equities close for the weekend, but Bitcoin keeps trading — making it the only market that can show whether the jobs shock or the Hormuz shock wins out before Monday's open.
Sources: CryptoSlate, CryptoPotato
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
