Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju expects this bitcoin bull cycle to bring 3-5x returns rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market. He links the smaller swings to growing institutional ownership and a larger capital base.
Bitcoin's current bull cycle could hand investors threefold to fivefold gains instead of a 10x-plus parabolic surge, according to Cryptoquant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju. In a Sept. 22 forecast on X, he argued that a larger bitcoin market is narrowing the extremes that defined earlier speculative booms.
According to Ki Young Ju: "I expect this bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally" Ju attributed the shift to a changed investor base: when bitcoin was smaller and retail dominated, hot money fueled explosive rallies and 80% crashes, but he said a much larger market and growing institutional ownership are now dampening both extremes.
His outlook lines up with Fidelity Digital Assets' 2024 research documenting bitcoin's declining volatility over time, which reasoned that capital entering a larger market should have a smaller price impact.
Holder Profitability Backs the Milder-Cycle Case
Ju's assessment draws on a profit-and-loss index tracking aggregate holder profitability, whose 365-day moving average shows lower recent peaks than earlier cycle highs, supporting his argument that market extremes are moderating. He also reported that bitcoin's market-value-to-realized-value ratio stayed above one even at this cycle's lows, meaning the holder base collectively remained above its estimated acquisition cost while some investors absorbed losses.
Institutional Demand Could Reshape the Cycle
Ju pointed to rising realized capitalization, a halt in selling by longstanding large holders, and sizable bullish futures positions as supporting signals, interpreting the realized-cap increase as fresh capital entering the market. The forecast follows an earlier one in which he argued that international institutional demand and ETF access could shape bitcoin's cycle peak, citing markets where regulated investment access remains limited.
He argued that giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash, which he said is exactly what invites patient, long-horizon capital instead of hot money. Lower volatility sits at the center of his longer-term thesis: greater stability could eventually make bitcoin more practical to use as money.
Source: Bitcoin News
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