Bitcoin crossed $65,000 in early Wednesday trading, extending a move higher inside a decline that began in October. One analyst says the cycle's bottom is still two months away, based on historical patterns; another reads short-term holder data as pointing toward a breakout. A sell wall between $64,000 and $65,000 stands between price and any sustained rally.
Bitcoin crossed the $65,000 mark in the early hours of Wednesday. The move comes inside a longer bear market that has pushed the asset lower since October.
The asset has fallen 25.98% this year, stripping $665 billion from its market cap and dragging its valuation down to $1.29 trillion. Bitcoin has traded lower since the bears seized control in October, when its price briefly pushed past $126,000.
Bitcoin's bull run isn't here yet
Joao Wedson, market analyst and founder of Alphractal, said in a recent X post that the bull market for Bitcoin could take another two months to kick in. His call draws on Bitcoin's resilience against intensifying bear pressure: at the bears' peak on day 267, the asset had fallen just 53.1%.
The last three bear markets — 2013 to 2015, 2017 to 2018, and 2021 to 2022 — carved out drawdowns of 85.3%, 83.4%, and 75.7%, with an average duration of 382 days. At the time of writing, Bitcoin sits 303 days past its market peak, leaving roughly 79 more days of decline, landing the bottom in October.
Short-term holders hint at a breakout
FrankAFetter, a pseudonymous Bitcoin analyst, reads the recent surge more positively. He built the case on Bitcoin's short-term holder profit/loss ratio, a chart pattern that has failed each time it reached the break-even point, pushing Bitcoin back into loss — first as Bitcoin tested $97,000, then again at $82,000, forming lower highs.
This time, he expects a breakout because he believes short-term holders now act as "market actors with a long-term holder mindset." For a longer, sustained rally, Bitcoin would need to clear one of the local highs, the nearest sitting in the $82,000 region.
A sell wall stands between price and a rally
The two analysts stay split on Bitcoin's near- and long-term path, but liquidity will do much to determine where price heads next. A sell wall builds across the $64,000 to $65,000 region, and liquidation data marks it as a critical hurdle. Bitcoin must clear the $65,000 level convincingly for any sustained rally to hold.
Source: AMBCrypto
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