Bitcoin fell more than $1,000 after Wednesday's benign US CPI report, sliding back to its bear market trendline. The drop stopped short of the last lower low, and chart signals suggest a rising bull market trendline could still cap further downside.
Bear market trendline holds as support
Bitcoin fell more than $1,000 after Wednesday's benign US CPI print, pulling back from the $64,450 horizontal resistance down to the bear market trendline. Bulls need to take full advantage of the current upside move, with a breakout of the key $65,600 resistance level as the prize.
The pullback, however, did not take out the last lower low, and the bear market trendline held as adequate support to stop the slide. The latest upward impulse formed where this major trendline met a smaller downward trendline, and Bitcoin is now approaching the next trendline above it. A breakout there would reopen the path toward the key overhead resistance.
Bull market trendline could apply the brake
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has been sliding down the bear market trendline since breaking through it. Yet the climbing bull market trendline stands as a bigger potential brake, converging with the falling bear trendline as price action has already crossed the latter — a sign, though not yet confirmed, that the bull trendline could win out.
The RSI tells a similar story. The indicator dropped below its own trendline, confirming the breakdown, yet it has since made a higher low. If that higher low keeps trending upward, the bulls should retain the edge in price action.
Is the bottom in?
Comparing the current move with the last two bull and bear cycles suggests this bear market is more likely finished than still falling. The bull trendline stretches back to the start of the bull market in late 2022, while the current bear market spans less than nine months, that is if the bottom was indeed a little under $58K.
The last two bear markets each ran just over a year, raising the question of whether this one is ending too early. That's probably not an issue, though one more dip below the previous low can't be ruled out. For now, the bull market trendline is holding, and Bitcoin looks to be emerging from a bottoming pattern, with plenty of choppy trading still likely before a clear breakout.
Source: Crypto Daily™
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