Bitcoin pressed toward $65,000 on Thursday, holding above $64,500 as cooling U.S. inflation and jobs data eased fears of another Federal Reserve rate hike and offset a hawkish policy hold. Glassnode says Treasuries now out-yield the crypto carry trade for only the second time on record, leaving spot volume at its lowest since 2019.
Bitcoin held above $64,500 and pressed toward $65,000 on Thursday, trading at $64,768.54 as softer U.S. economic data eased fears of another Fed rate hike and offset the hawkish tone of Wednesday's decision. The coin traded in a tight band through the Fed hold and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference, notable against a Nasdaq 100 in correction, according to Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev.
Bitcoin steadies as chip stocks tumble
For most of July, bitcoin moved as a leveraged expression of the semiconductor trade, Kalchev said. That grip has since loosened as crypto held through renewed U.S.-Iran escalation, oil near $92 and a semiconductor index down more than 14% over five sessions.
Kalchev cautioned that some of the calm reflects thinning summer liquidity rather than genuine strength. The assets whose valuations lean most on cheap money and AI optimism are falling, he said, and bitcoin is not following them down.
Ether climbed back above $1,900 to outperform the majors, with XRP trading at $1.07, Solana near $74 and BNB holding at $572. Still, XRP fell 6% and Solana slid 5% over seven sessions, a weekly picture softer than Thursday's tone suggests. Kalchev read the altcoin softness as thinning liquidity, not conviction selling, fitting a monthly pattern favoring larger, institutionally held assets over higher-beta names.
A hawkish Fed meets cooler economic data
The Federal Open Market Committee held its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75% on Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three policymakers dissenting in favor of a quarter-point hike. Thursday's data complicated that message: core PCE inflation rose 0.1% in June against a 0.2% forecast, while second-quarter GDP growth came in at 1.5% versus a 2.1% forecast and initial jobless claims rose to 197,000, Kalchev said, pointing to an economy cooling on several fronts at once.
Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, said the composition of the vote mattered more than the count, since all three dissenters were regional presidents while every Federal Reserve Board governor voted to hold: "The board's unanimity is consistent with the view that the committee holds through year-end," he said.
Treasuries now out-yield the carry trade
Treasuries have out-yielded the three-month futures basis, the crypto carry trade, for only the second extended stretch on record, Glassnode said, the first having ended at the 2022 cycle low. Spot volume measured in coins has fallen to its lowest level since 2019, exchange flows have thinned, and the order book's offer side has gone sparse. Glassnode's Bitcoin Vector model reads Risk Off, calling it a tactical pause one band above capitulation, with the drawdown the shallowest bear on record so far by depth.
K33 said July is tracking as bitcoin's weakest spot-trading month since November 2023, with average daily spot volume near $2.2 billion. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs returned to net inflows of $32 million on Wednesday after four straight days of outflows, per SoSoValue, while spot ether ETFs shed $18.6 million the same day.
Attention now turns to Strategy's results after the close. The largest corporate holder sold bitcoin this year for the first time in nearly four years and made no purchases in the four weeks before reporting; any further sales will be read as a gauge of treasury-model stress.
Source: The Block
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
