Long-term Bitcoin holders own about 4 million BTC bought between $85,000 and $118,000, and many may sell if the price returns to that range, according to Glassnode. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holders also sit near break-even, while the Federal Reserve held rates on Wednesday.
Long-term Bitcoin holders are sitting on losses on about 4 million BTC bought between $85,000 and $118,000, and many may sell if the price climbs back toward that level, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
Long-term holders bought most of the block in 2025
Glassnode defines long-term holders as those holding coins for more than 155 days and said most of that block was bought in 2025. More than half of all long-term holder coins were bought above the current price.
The block is worth about $326 billion at a Bitcoin price of around $81,400, about 35% below its all-time high of $126,080. Meanwhile, Glassnode said a band between $84,000 and $85,000 has turned Bitcoin back four times this year, and the asset has closed above it on only five days since January.
ETF holders are near break-even too. Glassnode puts the average price U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs paid for their coins at $81,500. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart estimated the figure at just under $82,000 and said Bitcoin has hovered around that level since the end of August.
The Fed holds as ETF flows pick up
The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday in a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a hike. Traders had put the odds of another quarter-point rate hike in December above 70% before the decision.
However, ETF flows have picked up this week. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $424 million from Monday to Wednesday, after $635 million left the funds on October 22.
HashKey senior researcher Tim Sun said any rally above $85,000 could face selling pressure from long-term holders seeking to break even. He expects Bitcoin to keep trading between $75,000 and $85,000 in the short term until macro liquidity improves and ETFs resume continuous net inflows.
Both Sun and Glassnode pointed to light selling, however. Around a dip on October 24, the largest daily net loss was about $27 million, against about $630 million at the August low. On the downside, Glassnode pointed to about $42 million in bids between $78,000 and $79,000 on Binance.
Source: Decrypt
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