Bitcoin rebounded toward $65,000 after cooler US inflation data eased fears of another Federal Reserve rate hike. Renewed fighting between the United States and Iran kept traders defensive, lifting gold and oil even as Bitcoin recovered.
Bitcoin climbed to an intraday high of about $65,040 after the Bureau of Economic Analysis published its June Personal Consumption Expenditures report, then eased back to trade near $64,804, a 1.2% gain over 24 hours. The rebound followed an intraday low of $63,252, coming after the Federal Reserve had left its benchmark rate between 3.5% and 3.75% for a fifth straight meeting.
PCE inflation cools to 3.7%, lifting Bitcoin
Headline PCE inflation fell 0.1% from the prior month, bringing the annual rate to 3.7%, matching market expectations and down from 4.1% in May. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.1% month over month, below the expected 0.2% increase, pulling its annual rate down to 3.3% from 3.4%.
The softer print eased some pressure on the Fed to raise rates again, since higher rates typically weigh on Bitcoin and other risk assets. Inflation nonetheless stays well above the Fed's 2% target, and the 30-year Treasury yield held above 5.2%, its highest level since 2007.
Rate-hike odds shift after the PCE print
Three Fed officials dissented in favor of a rate hike when the central bank held rates steady this week. Prediction market Polymarket now shows a 66% chance the Fed hikes rates this year, down from 70% a day earlier. CME FedWatch data separately puts the odds of the Fed holding steady in September at 44.4%, up from 28% the previous day.
Iran conflict keeps gold and oil elevated
The bond-market reaction limited the rebound, and Bitcoin had not established a sustained breakout above $65,000 at the time of writing. Fresh fighting added to the caution: the US military reported strikes against dozens of Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets after Tehran launched ballistic missiles at American forces in the Middle East.
Spot gold gained around 0.3% to $4,076 an ounce as investors sought defensive assets. Silver rose 0.6% to approximately $58 in the same move. Brent crude initially reached $93.31 before retreating below $90 on reports of talks between Oman and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Reuters, KCM Trade analyst Tim Waterer said "the risk premium in oil is not going anywhere" so long as safe passage through the strait stays uncertain.
For Bitcoin, $65,000 remains the immediate resistance level, with the session low near $63,250 as initial support. Another spike in oil prices tied to the conflict could revive inflation concerns and weaken demand for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Sources: crypto.news, CoinGape
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