Bitcoin rebounded from $75,700, a low that almost exactly matched the average purchase price of short-term holders, to near $78,500. US spot Bitcoin ETFs are still seeing redemptions, and a daily close above $78,456 would be the first recovery signal.
Bitcoin is trading near $78,500 on Wednesday, up about 1.2%. Earlier in the session it fell to $75,700, briefly dropping below its 200-day exponential moving average at $76,480.
ETF outflows continue after the Binance hack
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $116 million on November 3, their third consecutive day of redemptions. Over the 13 trading sessions from October 16 to November 3, the funds lost $2.01 billion on six outflow days after taking in $1.52 billion on seven inflow days.
The outflows follow Binance's disclosure of a theft with an estimated impact of around $6.3 billion. Bitcoin fell as much as 5% as the news spread, but the damage to the price has been limited for a theft that size.
Short-term holders sit at breakeven
On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr tracks the market value to realized value ratio of short-term holders. It fell from 1.054 to 1.018 between October 27 and November 3, leaving Bitcoin only 1.8% above this group's average cost of $75,800.
Those who are selling are doing so at a loss. The seven-day average of their SOPR dropped below 1 on October 30 and has stayed there for five consecutive days.
The $78,456 level is the first hurdle
Price is now pressing against $78,456, the 0.236 Fib, which acted as support in late October and turned into resistance after the hack candle broke through it. Above it, the 50-day EMA at $79,999 and the 0.382 Fib at $80,161 make $80,000 the main barrier.
Support on the downside is concentrated. The 200-day EMA, the $75,800 cost basis and the $75,700 low all sit within $800 of each other, and together with the late-October low near $76,100 they form a potential double bottom. A daily close below $75,700 would cancel that setup and expose the mid-September lows around $75,000.
Source: Crypto News Flash
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