Bitcoin has climbed roughly 20% over the past month and reclaimed a cost-basis metric that preceded rallies of up to 160% in past cycles, according to analyst Ali Martinez. Spot ETF buying and a golden cross add further support, but at least one trader expects a drop toward $62,000 before any sustained move higher.
Bitcoin has climbed roughly 20% over the past month, and analyst Ali Martinez says the coin just cleared a signal that has historically opened the door to much larger gains. The asset has hovered between $78,000 and $80,000 over the past several days and is currently trading near the middle of that range.
Warm Supply Realized Price flips bullish
Martinez noted that Bitcoin has reclaimed its Warm Supply Realized Price, a metric tracking the average cost basis of coins moved over the past one week to six months. He pointed out that the previous four times Bitcoin reclaimed this level, rallies followed: in October 2023, BTC exploded almost 160% after the reclaim, and a year later it pumped 74%. Separately, X user Crypto Rover spotted a golden cross forming on Bitcoin's chart, noting that the pattern's last appearance marked the end of a bear market and preceded a 500% surge.
ETF demand keeps building
Spot Bitcoin ETFs tracking the asset attracted almost $1 billion last week, led by BlackRock's IBIT with cumulative net assets surpassing $64 billion and Fidelity's FBTC in second at roughly $10.3 billion. US spot Bitcoin ETFs also logged $31.07 million in daily net inflows and $698.42 million over seven days, according to on-chain data cited by 99Bitcoins. Meanwhile, MNFund founder Michael van de Poppe said Bitcoin could move to $82,700 if it defends support between $77,600 and $77,900.
A drop before the rally, one trader warns
Not every analyst agrees the path higher is clear. Other analysts think Bitcoin will eventually stage a full bull run, but first it could see a substantial decline. X user Crypto With Haris ₿ claimed: "the final dump is closer than most traders realize," envisioning a plunge to $62,000 before a major uptrend.
Bitcoin's recent swings have already shaken out leveraged bets: roughly $79 million in Bitcoin positions were liquidated in a single session, part of $264 million in total crypto liquidations.
Sources: CryptoPotato, CoinGape, 99Bitcoins
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