Bitcoin stalled just below $80,000 on September 11 even as US stocks rose and long-dated Treasury yields held near levels not seen in years, leaving the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting as the next test of that resistance. Options traders are already pricing elevated volatility into the decision. Separately, other analysts are debating how far Bitcoin could fall if support gives way instead.
Bitcoin failed to break $80,000 on Sept. 11 as US stocks climbed about 1% and long-dated Treasury yields stayed near levels not seen in years. The token touched an intraday high of $79,890, still short of the $80,000-$82,000 resistance zone identified by digital asset trading firm QCP, while the S&P 500 closed up nearly 1% and the Dow and Nasdaq followed closely.
Bonds stay tight ahead of the Fed decision
August core CPI rose 0.3% on the month, keeping inflation central to Bitcoin's setup. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched 4.9915%, its highest level in almost three years, while the 30-year reached 5.424%, a 19-year high, before pulling back to roughly 4.95% and 5.341% respectively. Markets priced about an 85% probability of a quarter-point Fed rate increase the following week, a move traders discuss under the broader rate hike label.
Options market marks the lines to watch
QCP reported that the Sept. 12 Bitcoin options expiry carried implied volatility near 46%, compared with roughly 38%-40% across the rest of the curve. Turnover concentrated in Sept. 12 calls at $78,500 and $80,000, while the firm saw steady demand for $75,000 puts expiring Sept. 11 and Sept. 18. QCP put support at $76,300-$76,500 and resistance at $80,000-$82,000.
Analysts split on how far a bottom could go
Separately, Bitcoin traded at $77,278 as of Sept. 12, down 3.26% for the week and 33.48% from its year-ago high of $116,106. An early-September rebound stalled at $82,283 on the 3rd before sellers regained control. Citi's bear scenario points to $53,000, close to the network's realized price of $53,600. NYDIG's deeper $38,000-$39,000 target would require both a US recession and a full unwind of ETF holdings, a scenario the firm treats as a tail outcome rather than its base case. Arthur Hayes, the former BitMEX chief executive, has warned of a possible 75% crash toward roughly $19,320, though he pairs that scenario with a longer-term call of $250,000.
NYDIG's own framing makes clear that outcome depends on a recession the US economy has not yet entered.
Sources: CryptoSlate, 24/7 Wall St.
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