Bitcoin slipped to $77,197.6 on Friday as U.S.-Iran military tensions and caution ahead of U.S. CPI data pushed traders away from risk assets. The pullback compounds a stall below $80,000 that Binance data ties to fading aggressive buying, while a separate anomaly in Bitcoin's 17.5-year HODL Wave dataset suggests a single whale or small group quietly accumulated the recent bottom.
Bitcoin fell 1.7% to $77,197.6 by 01:51 ET on Friday, extending a weekly decline of 3% that snapped three straight weeks of gains. Broader crypto prices retreated too, as anxiety over the Iran conflict and U.S. interest rates spurred profit-taking after a strong early-September run-up.
Iran tensions and CPI caution weigh on risk assets
The sell-off followed some of the worst attacks on shipping this week since the U.S.-Iran conflict began in late February, with a new front opening between Yemen's Houthis and Saudi Arabia. Oil prices surged over 11% this week, though gains eased after the Financial Times reported Iran and Oman were set to meet Gulf states over reopening the Strait of Hormuz next week.
Rising energy costs also stoked concerns over inflation that could prompt more rate hikes, with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan both meeting next week. Friday's CPI print, expected to show inflation holding steady in August, kept traders on edge, since any sign of overheating inflation would likely push market expectations for a Fed rate hike further. Ether fell 0.5% to $2,468.17. XRP fell 2.7%.
Buyers lose conviction below $80,000
Bitcoin's rebound from recent lows has stalled just under $80,000, and Binance data shows why. Cumulative Net Taker Volume dropped from roughly $5.77 billion on August 21 to $2.67 billion, a decline of about 54%, while Open Interest fell only about 4%, from approximately $4.9 billion to $4.7 billion. That gap means traders have pulled back aggressive buying far faster than they have closed out their derivatives positions, leaving the market exposed to sharper moves if the current range breaks.
Coinpedia's chart analysis puts $76,000-$75,000 as the first support zone, with a break potentially opening the way to $72,000-$73,000. A daily close above $80,000, followed by a move through $82,000-$84,000, would point toward the next resistance around $88,000-$90,000.
On-chain anomaly hints at quiet whale accumulation
Adding to the uncertainty, on-chain analyst Willy Woo has flagged what he calls an anomaly in Bitcoin's HODL Wave data: the youngest supply bands show none of the buying spikes that have accompanied every other bottom across 17.5 years of data. According to Willy Woo: "Whoever bought the bottom did it slowly. Possibly even a single whale."
Woo has acknowledged the pattern could also reflect ETFs, institutional custody or derivatives activity rather than a single buyer. The uncertainty comes as approximately $2.51 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire on Friday, with Bitcoin accounting for the overwhelming majority.
Sources: Investing.com, Coinpedia, U.Today
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