Bitcoin stayed pinned below $64,000 on Thursday even after two straight days of soft inflation data, a muted reaction that Glassnode read as a sign that demand remains missing. Spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since Glassnode's data series began in 2019, while analysts point to different price levels as the next test.
Bitcoin drifted below $64,000 on Thursday, unable to build on two straight days of soft inflation data. July's Consumer Price Index left the headline rate flat and core inflation slipped a tenth to 2.5%, and Thursday's Producer Price Index for final demand held unchanged in July, with services up 0.2% and goods down 0.7%. Initial jobless claims, however, rose to 209,000 for the week ending Aug. 8, above expectations of 202,000.
Bitcoin sits pinned between two levels
Glassnode places spot price just above the Median Realized Price at $63,000 — the level that splits every coin's cost basis down the middle — and below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $68,700, the average entry price of the most recent buyers. Price has spent nearly three months in that pocket as the two levels converge. Meanwhile, spot exchange volume has fallen to its lowest level since Glassnode's data series began in early 2019, and fewer bitcoins are changing hands than at any point in seven years.
Sellers tire, buyers stay missing
Glassnode wrote: "A weak response to good news is itself a warning," reading the failed rally as a sign that demand remains missing. Sellers are tiring too — supply in profit sits near past bear-floor territory, and adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio shows the seven-day average has returned to break-even nine times since the October 2025 peak, with sellers exiting each time. Glassnode marks $68,700 as resistance and $58,500 as the support that would resolve the standoff.
Spot bitcoin ETFs turned to net inflows at the end of July for the first time in months, though at a fraction of past accumulation waves. The funds still shed $61 million on Wednesday, with daily trading volume near $1.19 billion — far below February's $14.7 billion peak.
Analysts weigh the next move
Simon-Peter Massabni of XS.com sees bitcoin trapped between $60,000 and $65,000 as traders weigh the inflation data against fading optimism over a U.S.-Iran understanding on the Strait of Hormuz. He also points to recent bitcoin sales by Strategy as adding to supply concerns, putting $60,000 as the range's key support. A break below that level, he said, could intensify selling pressure and open the door to a deeper correction.
Not everyone reads the quiet defensively. Martin Gaspar of FalconX cites call activity and less aggressive put buying as signs of reduced bearishness, while Matt Mena of 21shares called Thursday's data a catalyst rather than a caution, putting a run toward the $70,000 to $75,000 zone by month-end as increasingly plausible.
Source: The Block
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