Bitcoin traders are pulling back bullish options positions after the largest cryptocurrency retreated from $80,000, with U.S. producer and consumer inflation data due this week seen as pivotal for interest-rate expectations. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, meanwhile, says a long-term climb to a $400,000 price is still a reasonable target for 2030.
Traders trim bullish exposure
Bitcoin's pullback from $80,000 has prompted traders to scale back bullish bets ahead of inflation data due today and tomorrow. According to AI-powered trading terminal OrderX: "Call skew continues to soften as traders shed bullish exposure following early-week weakness."
Call skew measures the bias for calls, or bullish option positions, relative to puts, or insurance against price drops. According to OrderX, that bias is weakening as bitcoin's spot price retraces to $78,000 from highs above $81,000. The retreat comes amid rising oil prices, elevated bond yields and growing expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.
Inflation data looms large
U.S. producer prices, due Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, are expected to rise 0.4% month over month in August, following an unchanged reading in July. That would push the annualized figure to 5.3% from 4.7%. Friday's consumer price report is also expected to show a re-acceleration in inflation.
CME FedWatch data currently points to a more than 60% chance of a rate hike next week. Bitcoin has recently traded between $76,000 and $82,000, a range that looks like a typical bull breather after the rally from $64,000 to $80,000 in August. A firm move above $82,000 would mark a fresh bullish breakout; a break below $76,000 would flip the outlook bearish.
Armstrong sees long-term upside
Even as near-term positioning turns cautious, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong struck a bullish long-term tone on CNBC's Squawk Box Asia. Asked whether Bitcoin could reach a $400,000 price by 2030 with the asset trading below $80,000, Armstrong said he thinks that is a reasonable target. He pointed to technical factors, regulatory progress, and the upcoming halving event as potential price drivers.
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